First Round Thoughts and Predictions on Atlantic 10 Teams
These are my thoughts on how Atlantic 10's three NCAA tournament teams, URI, VCU, and Dayton will fare in the first round. Obviously, I will be writing more about URI's game against Creighton in my upcoming in-depth game preview.
Creighton vs. URI (3/17/17 - 4:30 pm on TBS): Creighton is a 1-point favorite and it seems like that favoritism still comes from the Bluejays' past accomplishments with Mo Watson as their point guard and floor general. I started clapping when Rhode Island was announced as the #11 seed right under the #6 seed Creighton. As an unbiased college basketball fan or even as a betting man, I can keep it short and sweet by saying that picking Creighton would be idiotic. The game may be close but URI will pull out the upset in Sacramento.
St. Mary's vs. VCU (3/16/17 - 7:20 pm on TBS): Saint Mary's is a 4.5-point favorite and I think that comes from the Gaels' "shiny" overall record. To me, this game is an extremely "50-50" contest. To start, you have Saint Mary's College, who consistently live in the shadow of Gonzaga in the West Coast conference. On the other hand, you have Virginia Commonwealth University, who can sometimes live in the shadow of the Dayton Flyers, in the Atlantic 10. I am consistently impressed by how well both teams perform in their respective conferences and now they must interlock in a non-conference affair. To me, this game comes down to Saint Mary's offense versus VCU's defense. VCU's defense is certainly capable of shutting down what the Gaels want to do offensively, assuming that Mo Alie-Cox stays out of foul trouble and the VCU guards can create turnovers and have perfect defensive rotations. My one concern for VCU fans would be producing enough points offensively against the Gaels, who allowed only 56.5 PPG, good for first in their conference and second in the country. All in all, I think that VCU edges this one out because they can stop Saint Mary's offense enough to secure the win (and because I want VCU to win).
Dayton vs. Wichita State (3/17/17 - 7:10 pm on CBS): Wichita State is a 6-point favorite and you can guess why. In AP's previously published "Reaction to Selection Sunday: Who Did the Seeding?", the thinking was that the Shockers deserved a higher seed, as most college basketball experts thought. On the Selection Sunday show, all of America could see that Seth Davis was genuinely surprised that Gregg Marshall's squad did not receive a seed in the 7-8 range, at least. There is no good way of putting the probable end result but to be frank, Dayton is screwed. The Flyers drew a matchup against arguably the best double-digit seed in the field of 68. Dayton's group of 4 seniors - Scoochie Smith, Kyle Davis, Charles Cooke, and Kendall Pollard are strong and will keep their team in the game. With that said, the Shockers have the edge over the Flyers in multiple facets of the game, their statistically better in PPG, FG%, FT%, and 3PT%, and their bench is simply better. Friday at 7:10 pm on CBS is going to show who plays better as a TEAM. Finally, I'm ecstatic that this game comes right after URI beats Creighton because Dayton vs. Wichita State will be a fun one.
Ultimately, by the end of the first round, I think Dayton's great senior class will all be looking a little something like this:
